Four new state polls show Hillary Clinton
and Donald Trump within the margin of error of each other – and
potentially picking off states associated with the other candidate's
party.
Trump, for his part, looks to
be making the blueish New Hampshire and Nevada more competitive than
they have been in recent cycles.
Clinton, on the other hand, could potentially win the red states of Georgia and Arizona, the new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls show.
In New Hampshire, a state that Trump heaps
praise on because its Republican voters handed the billionaire his
first primary win, he receives 41 percent support from likely voters to
Clinton's 42 percent.
Among registered voters, a bigger sample size, Trump and Clinton were tied at 40 percent.
The
state's independent-minded voters gave Libertarian Party candidate 15
percent of their support when pollsters looked a four-way race.
In
this scenario Green Party candidate Jill Stein scored 3 percent of the
vote, while Clinton got 39 percent and Trump received 37 percent
support.
New Hampshire voters gave
their electoral votes to President Barack Obama in 2012 and 2008 and
Democratic hopeful John Kerry, now the secretary of state, in 2004, but
President George W. Bush won the Granite State in the year 2000.
The margin of error for likely New Hampshire voters was plus-or-minus 3.6 percent and registered voters was 3.1 percent.
In
Nevada, another state that has voted Democratic the last two cycles –
though also went for George W. Bush both times he ran – Clinton again
leads Trump by only one point.
She receives 45 percent of support from likely voters, to Trump's 44 percent, with a margin of error of 3.9 percent.
When
the pool is expanded to registered voters Clinton pulls ahead, earning
46 percent to Trump's 41 percent, which is outside the poll's 3.2
percent margin of error for that sampling.
Additionally
when Johnson and Stein are added in, Trump squeaks ahead of Clinton by
one point, earning 42 percent to Clinton's 41 percent, while Johnston
nabs 8 percent of the vote and Stein, again, gets just 3 percent.
Moving
to two states that are usually safe havens for Republicans, Clinton is
just one point behind Trump in Arizona, earning 41 percent to his 42
percent among likely voters.
When the
pool is expanded to registered voters, Clinton stays at 41 percent,
while Trump falls behind her to 40 percent support.
The surveys' margin of error are 3.8 percent and 3.2 percent respectively.
Since 1980 Arizona has only gone Democratic once – in 1996 to re-elect Clinton's husband, President Bill Clinton.
Finally, Georgia is proving to be a more competitive state than in years past, when it was reliably red.
The
new survey shows Clinton at 43 percent and Trump at 46 percent among
likely voters, within the poll's margin of error of 3.9 percent.
Among registered voters the two candidates are tied at 44 percent, with a margin of error of 3.2 percent.
The
Southern state last elected a Democrat in 1992, helping President Bill
Clinton win the White House over Republican George H.W. Bush.
'As
we enter the final lap of this very unconventional election, it would
not be surprising if the electoral map in the end has new contours,'
surmised Lee Miringoff, the director of the Marist College Institute for
Public Opinion.
'Any of these four
states could awaken a fault line in what is looking more and more like a
shake-up election with more states being up for grabs,' Miringoff said.
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