Hillary Clinton opens up as the presidential race tightens

HILLARY CLINTON does not often speak about her religious faith. But on September 8th, the Democratic presidential nominee gave a speech to the National Baptist Convention that was peppered with quotations from the Bible and personal reminiscences: the gruff father who prayed by his bed every night, the mother who taught Sunday school, and Mrs Clinton’s own occasional difficulty obeying the commandment to love. After a few weeks of public silence—Mrs Clinton has been fundraising hard—broken by attacks on Donald Trump, Mrs Clinton appeared to be projecting a warmer, more personal image.
The shift in tone was not a coincidence: Mrs Clinton is dangerously losing ground. This week, as the sprint to November 8th entered its crucial two-month close, a raft of polls showed that the race is tightening. Mrs Clinton now leads Mr Trump in national polls by somewhere between three and five percentage points. In the weeks following the success of the Democratic convention, the failures of Mr Trump’s own show and the many gaffes that followed it, Mrs Clinton led him by eight percentage points. It was perhaps inevitable that Mr Trump would regain some of his lost ground; new revelations about Mrs Clinton’s email habits and the cosy ties between the Department of State when she led it and her family foundation, have helped him. But she cannot afford to lose much more.
One new recent poll, for CNN, even put Mr Trump a few points ahead. That, though, was among “likely voters”; among registered voters Mrs Clinton retained the lead. But the general picture is the same, of candidates who are back to where they were in the early summer. Only now, they have only 59 days to go. Hence the Clinton campaign’s attempt to project a softer image—and of a politician whose every thought does not revolve around the awfulness of her opponent.
Mrs Clinton is still the favourite. This is because she leads in the Electoral College, an assembly representing each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia through which Americans elect their presidents. In most the most important swing states she is on top. But on September 9th a poll released by Quinnipiac University showed she was slipping in two of the most critical swing states. Mrs Clinton led Mr Trump in swing states by around three percentage points. But she was neck-and-neck with him in Florida; and Mr Trump was slightly ahead in Ohio.
A close race will, meanwhile, be made even more uncertain by the unusually high number of voters who are still undecided or planning to vote for third parties. A recent Wall Street Journal/BNC poll shows that 13% of voters are undecided; in 2012 the figure at the same time was 8%. Add to those the voters who say they will plump for Libertarian Gary Johnson or Jill Stein of the Green Party, and around a quarter of voters haven’t nailed their colours to the Trump or Clinton mast. Third party voters often change their minds as an election approaches, adding to the probability of a surprise in this election.
The main reason why unusually large numbers of voters are still undecided is that the candidates are so unpopular. Many such voters won’t make their decision until after the first presidential debate, on September 26th. In the meantime, expect to hear more about Mrs Clinton's love of God and neighbour